Ceasefire Day 51: Iran, U.S. Exchange Strikes

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it struck a U.S. air base in retaliation for an American attack near Bandar Abbas airport and Kuwait reported intercepting incoming missiles and drones as a ceasefire to the Iran War entered its 51st day on Thursday.

A U.S. official said Wednesday evening that strikes on Iran were “purely defensive and intended to maintain the ceasefire,” while U.S. Central Command said it shot down five drones that “posed a clear threat in and near the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran’s Tasnim News gave a different account, saying the IRGC Navy had fired on a U.S. oil tanker transiting the strait with its radar off, forcing it back. It reported no casualties on either side.

The overnight exchange is the second incident this week that has tested an emerging diplomatic framework to end the war, one which both Iran and the U.S. had indicated was close to being agreed upon.

At a White House cabinet meeting on Wednesday, President Donald Trump rejected a plan for the Strait of Hormuz to be controlled by Iran and Oman, telling reporters that “Oman will behave just like everybody else or we’ll have to blow them up.”

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced sanctions against the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the new mechanism created by the Iranian government to regulate transits and fees through the Strait of Hormuz. “We have warned any corporate or state entities against paying tolls or hiding them as aid payments,” Bessent said.

Axios, citing anonymous U.S. officials, said that the U.S. and Iran are close to signing a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, get traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, and begin negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, with the document pending Trump’s final approval.

Iran’s Tasnin News Agency had reported Sunday that the first phase of the memorandum of understanding being considered to end the war would include the U.S. lifting its blockade of Hormuz and waiving sanctions on Iranian oil during the negotiation period, allowing Tehran to sell oil without restrictions. The deal also reportedly includes “an understanding in which the end of the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, is emphasized.” In exchange, Iran would allow vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz at “pre-war levels,” but according to Tasnim, Iran would retain control over the waterway, saying that “despite some Western media reports,” the “Strait of Hormuz situation will not return to pre-war conditions.”

The White House on Wednesday rejected an Iranian media report outlining a possible agreement with Tehran, calling it “not true” and a “complete fabrication.” Drop Site News, citing Iranian officials, reported Tuesday that the U.S. has accepted some of Tehran’s red lines in the latest revisions to a draft ceasefire declaration but has asked for time to “manage domestic public opinion” before formally announcing the agreement.

On Monday, Trump signaled more flexibility over Iran’s nuclear energy program, posting on Truth Social that his preference is for its enriched uranium to be “destroyed in place” inside Iran or “at another acceptable location” in coordination with the Iranian government and “with the Atomic Energy Commission, or its equivalent, being witness to this process and event.” Previously Trump had demanded that Iran deliver the uranium to the United States.

Drop Site News, citing a senior Iranian official, reported Friday that, although Iran will only engage in nuclear talks at a later phase of any deal, Iran would be willing to suspend enrichment above 3.6 percent for 10 years and dilute existing higher-enriched uranium inside the country under international supervision.

Israeli strikes across southern Lebanon killed at least 14 people Thursday while the IDF said that one soldier in northern Israel was killed by a Hezbollah drone attack.
Brent Crude oil traded at $94.50 on Thursday while gas prices remained elevated but also below recent peaks, with AAA reporting the national average price of regular gas at $4.43.